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Why are we so bad at predicting the future – and how can we get better at it? Humans have been trying to peer into the future for millennia and, for just as long, we’ve been blindsided by events that we should have seen coming — stock market crashes, natural disasters, the fact they’re still making Smurf movies in 2025... For much of history, our forecasting flops can be put down to some of the questionable methods we used. Crystal balls, tea leaves, and horoscopes proved far

My inbox is overflowing. Every day I get bombarded with promotions, pointless updates, and notifications I never signed up for. Most of the time I swipe away without even opening. But imagine if, just once, an email landed that you actually  looked forward to reading... Alright, you caught me – this is a shameless plug for the iluli newsletter . But I promise there’s a good reason. Each month, we take on subjects that might sound intimidating at first – from bioprinting huma

We’re often told to trust our instincts – but is intuition really the best guide for making big decisions?  It’s the snap judgment in an emergency that saves a life, or the lightning-fast thinking of an elite athlete making a pass no one else saw coming. In the right context, intuition can be a powerful asset. But it can also lead us astray – making us prone to bias, blind spots and oversimplification. So, when should you trust your gut, and when should you slow down and thin

How often have you come across a terrible piece of technology and wondered how it ever made it past the drawing board?  Buttons in weird places. Features you’ll never use. Options you need but can’t find. You wonder: who signed this off, and did they ever use it themselves? One thing is for sure – they would’ve benefited from reading product management guru Marty Cagan's influential book Inspired: How to Create Tech Products Customers Love. It focuses on “product teams” – the

Back in the days of cavemen, motivation was as primal as it gets: eat, drink, mate – and try not to get trampled by a woolly mammoth. Jump ahead to the Industrial Revolution, and things changed. Work became more structured, more repetitive, and more hierarchical. A new kind of motivation emerged – external incentives built on the logic of reward and punishment. Or, as it’s more commonly known, “the carrot and the stick.” This extrinsic model still dominates the workplace toda

If you ever land a job interview with Peter Thiel – the tech entrepreneur and billionaire investor behind some of Silicon Valley’s biggest names – brace yourself for one big question:   What important truth do very few people agree with you on?   It’s a tricky question, no doubt, but it offers an intriguing insight into what Thiel values, as he explains in his 2014 bestseller Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future:   This question sounds easy […] actually,

When football fans hear the word “messy”, their minds might leap to the elegance and effortless brilliance of Argentinian superstar Lionel Messi dancing through defences. In most other contexts, though, the connotations aren’t usually positive. A cluttered desk, an untidy house or a chaotic schedule can feel like personal failings we need to fix. We’re conditioned to see tidiness as a virtue and order as the foundation of success. But if you’re feeling bad that your desk look

Does “more” always equal “better”? When it comes to things we enjoy – holidays, money, gadgets, convenience – it seems obvious that the answer must be a resounding “yes.” We equate “more” with progress. Businesses promise more products for their customers and more returns for their shareholders. Charities aim to provide more support to greater numbers of people. Content creators hope for more readers, views and subscribers. Politicians continually promise more economic growt

Did you know ice cream causes drowning? Well, not really – but if you trust statistics blindly then it might appear that way. On hot days, ice cream sales soar, and so do swimming-related accidents. It’s the kind of statistical mischief Darrell Huff warned about more than half a century ago in his best-selling classic How to Lie with Statistics. First published in 1954, Huff’s guide teaches us how to spot some of the numerical nonsense that still fills headlines, social media

What’s the formula for success? Hard work? Talent? Grit? That’s what we’re often told. But what if there’s another important ingredient that we rarely acknowledge? The truth is that luck plays a much greater role in success than we like to admit. Whether we’re talking pop megastars, entrepreneurs or world leaders, random chance can be the difference that helps some people make it to the top. So why do we overlook the role of luck? And, if we’re all at the mercy of random chan

Innovation can be a high-stakes tightrope walk. Successful companies must continually refine and enhance their existing products to stay ahead – this is called sustaining innovation . But sometimes, a new and unexpected disruptive innovation will   sneak in and rewrite the rules entirely. When this happens, even industry leaders can fall down.  It’s a pattern we see play out time and again. Kodak, once the world’s leading photography company, failed to keep pace with the adve

What do Bill Gates, The Beatles and Canadian ice hockey stars have in common? Clue: the answer isn’t just that they are phenomenally successful… We’re often told that success comes down to talent and effort – the most able and hardest working are the ones who achieve wealth, fame and power. But what if there’s another secret ingredient that we’re missing? In the latest   iluli video , we explored the critical role of luck in helping those who rise to the top. It’s a theme run

Messi or Ronaldo? Coke or Pepsi? Republican or Democrat? Whether it’s politics, fan allegiances or opinions on Marmite, we love to frame our choices as black and white. This “binary bias” can be a useful way to simplify complex decisions and spur us into action. But it can also harm our decision-making more than we realise and lead to unhelpful divides. Here’s my quick explainer on the subject: The appeal of binary From Shakespeare and The Beatles , to JFK and The Clash , w

As a kid, if I ever pulled a funny face, I’d get the classic warning: “If the wind changes, you’ll stay like that!" Decades later, that line is still crystal-clear in my memory. While an economic statistic I heard on BBC radio this morning? Already forgotten. Somehow, those early warnings left a mark, cutting deeper than logic or rationality ever could. Now imagine you work in marketing and you really want your message to stick. Would you go for the dry radio stat, or lean in

I’ve read countless books on leadership and management. Many are packed with valuable insights, but few prepare you for those brutally tough times. Sure, models and targets help, but a polished strategy document isn’t going to waltz into HR and handle a hard conversation for you. “I know you’re worried about paying rent, Geoff, but have you seen my elegant SMART targets?” This is why I was excited to find a book that dives into the real tough truths of leadership – even if r

Ever feel like your to-do list has taken on a life of its own – a well-intentioned effort at organisation that ends up adding more stress than relief? You’re not alone. Whether you’re running a business, leading a team, or simply trying to manage the family calendar, staying on track can feel like walking a tightrope while juggling eels. Slippery little suckers!   Now imagine writing that to-do list for a company as big as Google... As Philip Aldrick shared in The Times : The

Malcolm Gladwell's turn-of-the-millennium book,  The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference , delves into the pivotal moment when an idea or trend explodes into public consciousness and spreads rapidly. From fashion and smoking to television and crime, Gladwell examines the small sparks that ignite big change. Does he occasionally stray into the realm of fiction? Perhaps. But he also showcases his talent as a captivating storyteller, skilfully weaving toge

If you ever need clear evidence of a business's success, look for when its brand name becomes so ingrained in everyday language that it replaces a verb. Not convinced? You can Google it. It’s one of the reasons why many were perplexed by Twitter’s rebranding – millions of us “tweeted” daily, but when was the last time you “Xd”?   This puts Netflix in a rather unique linguistic and cultural, er, position, thanks to the phrase “ Netflix and Chill ” entering the lexicon as far b

If you’re hoping for a play-by-play of Sir Alex Ferguson’s tenure at Manchester United, you’ve come to the wrong place. The term “red teaming” has nothing to do with football.    Instead, I’m talking about Bryce Hoffman’s 2017 book: Red Teaming: Transform Your Business by Thinking Like the Enemy , described as: "A revolutionary new way to make critical and contrarian thinking part of the planning process of any organisation, allowing companies to stress-test their strategies,

I don’t know about you, but I can't hear The Rolling Stones' Start Me Up without picturing Bill Gates and his Microsoft pals throwing some shapes at the Windows '95 launch. Aside from the second-hand embarrassment it gives me, it also goes some way to explaining why I hear strains of Keith Richards’ legendary guitar riff whenever the word “startup” is uttered.   In his 2011 book The Lean Startup , author Eric Ries defines a startup as: “any human institution designed to cre